California has about 12 percent of the nation's population, but is home to more than a quarter of America's homeless population, or more than 181,000 people at the latest count.
There are many reasons for this huge problem, including generations of state laws to deinstitutionalize the mentally ill and high housing costs that have subsequently driven tens of thousands of people out of shelters. But since the pandemic made fentanyl abuse and tent camps an inevitable symptom of a public health crisis, state policymakers have come under intense pressure to rethink California's approach to behavioral health.
Californians voted last week for a key part of the rethink that would put more emphasis on treatment and housing for homeless people with severe mental illness and substance use disorders. The ballot measure, known as Proposition 1, is the result of Gov. Gavin Newsom's months of efforts to garner support across the state.
Polls suggest that Proposition 1 is a complete failure. But so far, it's barely passing. This week, the measure continued to receive 50.5% of the vote, with an estimated 2.5 million votes remaining to be counted. what happened?
Here's what you need to know about California's Proposition 1.
What is suggestion 1?
Proposition 1, placed on the ballot last year by state lawmakers and Mr. Newsom, asks voters to significantly expand treatment centers and supportive housing for people suffering from mental illness and addiction. The bill would authorize a $6.38 billion bond issue to buy facilities and homes and amend the Mental Health Services Act, a state tax that has been levied on billionaires for two decades, to provide about $140 million a year. Millions of dollars would be transferred from the county to the state. The measure would also set aside about $1 billion to house homeless, mentally ill and addicted veterans.
What are the arguments for and against Proposition 1?
Supporters of Prop. 1 say it's key to rebuilding California's behavioral health system. They say one reason there are so many addicts and mentally ill people on the streets is because there is a severe shortage of adult treatment beds in the state. Proposition 1 would help house more than 11,000 sick people and underwrite CARE Court, a new state program that requires people to receive treatment for certain mental disorders. This measure would clearly extend massive treatment costs to homeless drug abusers. And proponents argue that Prop. 1 would reduce taxpayer spending on people currently receiving treatment primarily in prisons.
Some civil libertarians worry that Proposition 1 heralds a return to the days when involuntary treatment of the mentally ill was the norm. But most opponents cite financial concerns. Critics say California has already spent tens of billions of dollars on homelessness, but the situation is only getting worse. Critics say Proposition 1 would not add new taxes, but would limit the amount states can borrow for other issues and force taxpayers to take on new debt amid high interest rates. are doing. Counties also rely on the Mental Health Services Act to pay for programs not covered by California's version of Medicaid or other less flexible funding sources, and Proposition 1 would shift some of that funding to the state. .
Why are the votes so close?
Newsom administration officials said internal polling had always predicted a close vote. Voter turnout in California is typically lower in primaries than in general elections, and like-minded Democrats are not represented as many.
The bond measures have been long and disruptive and come at a time when the state is struggling with budget shortfalls. Mental health policy is a thorny issue in California, and proposed changes tend to draw fierce backlash from civil rights groups. And many voters are frustrated and fatigued by the scale of homelessness in California and are skeptical that any ballot measure can solve the problem.
However, even in the primary election turnout was low. According to the latest statistics, only about a quarter of the state's roughly 22 million registered voters would have cast a ballot in the presidential primary unless the presidential nomination race is close for either party. The participation rate is the lowest in at least 20 years.
The surprising proportion of Republicans also influenced the results. They make up less than a quarter of registered voters, but as of this weekend they account for nearly 30% of turnout. Some Democratic analysts believe that Adam Schiff, the front-runner in the state's U.S. Senate race, has spent thousands of ads promoting the profile of his preferred opponent, Republican Steve Garvey, a political novice. He points out that he has invested $1,000.
When will I know the final results?
California relies heavily on mail-in voting, which typically takes weeks to count, but most observers expect clearer results within days.
All of California's more than 22 million registered voters were sent a ballot, but only about a third of them cast their ballots. Approximately 2 million ballots remain unprocessed, according to the latest state figures. Election authorities have until April 5th.
But the sources of these remaining ballots suggest Proposition 1's prospects. Campaign officials said late last week that some large conservative constituencies still needed to be counted, but there were many more outstanding votes in larger cities. These areas of the state, such as Los Angeles and Alameda counties, are heavily Democratic and more likely to vote “yes.”