US stocks fall as suspicions of high-tech policy and interest rate cuts creep in

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, further retreating from record highs as uncertainty over interest rate cuts and strength in tech stocks spooked the market.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) was down about 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was down about 0.3%, after falling since the start of the week. Continued declines in Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) continued to weigh on broader stock prices, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) contract down about 0.8%.

The debate now is whether the tech profits behind recent record stock gains have peaked. This comes as bad economic news dampens the “FOMO'' (fear of missing out) that is expected to keep investors interested.

Apple in early trading came under pressure after reports that iPhone sales in China had fallen 24%, and losses widened on Monday after a $2 billion antitrust fine by the European Union. did. Tesla's sales continued to slump due to sluggish shipments due to the closure of its Gigafactory in Berlin and growing concerns about price competition in China.

At the same time, confidence in the Fed's future easing has been shaken following comments from policymaker Rafael Bostic. The Atlanta Fed president said there will be only one rate cut this year, scheduled for the third quarter.

Investors are now paying more attention to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress on Wednesday. His words will be closely watched to see if they change the belief that policymakers need to be confident that inflation will be overcome before taking action.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) hit a new all-time high, briefly surpassing its all-time high of $68,789 in November 2021. It has since retreated and is now trading around $68,000 per coin.

In companies, Target (TGT)'s earnings beat Wall Street expectations, sending its stock soaring more than 10% in early market trading.

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Tuesday, March 5, 2024, 10:15 a.m. ET

Macro settings and election season

This day is likely to feature Super Tuesday analysis from various market commentators and other experts.

Why not have some fun with Yahoo Finance?

A wonderful memo to Wells Fargo from my favorite economist, Michael Schumacher, arrived in my inbox. I found it useful to see how he thinks about possible market movements in the months before the election, with a particular focus on fiscal and monetary policy.

Schumacher's thoughts.

Republican overwhelming victory

“Our view is that a Republican landslide is the scenario that would cause the largest increase in deficits and Treasury funding requirements after 2025, especially if Republicans take control of Congress, which could lead to loosening of fiscal policy under the Trump administration. “We expect that President Trump will likely do so.” “We would like to extend, if not expand, the previous tax cuts. This scenario is based on the combination of the Treasury term premium and the yield curve, e.g. 5s/30s).As previously stated, if Trump wins, the curve will likely become steeper in the coming weeks, increasing the likelihood of a Republican landslide. is becoming increasingly sexual. ”

Democratic Party Sweep

“This scenario also seems very likely to include higher deficits and a steeper Treasury curve, but the margins are smaller than a Republican landslide victory,” our economists said. Even if they won an overwhelming victory, I don't think they would allow the TCJA to be completely revoked.” “As scheduled”. It is thought that the tax rate for high income earners may rise further. Additionally, corporate tax increases are also likely in this scenario. Some personal income tax provisions are likely to expire on schedule, but with the expiration of tax cuts expected to result in more meaningful spending measures. ”
Tuesday, March 5, 2024 9:32 AM ET

Stock prices retreat further from all-time highs

U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, retreating again from all-time highs.

As of the opening bell, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was down 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was down about 0.3% after falling since the start of the week. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC) fell about 0.8% as Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) continued to decline.
Tuesday, March 5, 2024, 7:30 a.m. ET

Today is Super Tuesday, Target CEO mentions election

Super Tuesday is unlikely to move the market.

That's completely understandable, but there's a lot more going on in the markets this week, from Bitcoin's wild rise to Tesla (TSLA) stock's decline.

But at some point this year, a controversial US presidential election is about to happen. move market.That's why I'm collecting comments on the election from top leaders. today This is to guide investors through the murky waters ahead in the coming months.

Target (TGT) Chairman and CEO Brian Cornell, who I last met in person inside the White House a few months ago before meeting with the Biden administration, on Super Tuesday. He did not say much about his macro view. But he gave me enough information in our phone conversation to start thinking about how consumer stock trading might behave in the months leading up to November.

he said to me:

“We're looking at it [the election] Just like you, be really careful. We've looked at past trends in election years. We believe we can definitely bring a little joy to our guests during these uncertain times. Make Target a special place for them to shop, with relevant products and great value. But we know they still consume and we want to be a destination during what can be a very difficult and uncertain time. ”