CV NEWS FEED // Hispanic and Latino voters are more likely to support the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, and more likely to support President Joe Biden, according to a new poll.
At the same time, the poll shows that Latino voters still strongly identify with the Democratic Party and may be leaning slightly toward the Democratic Party.
The Axios/Ipsos poll was released Tuesday “among more than 1,000 Latino/Hispanic Americans” and was conducted from March 22 to March 28 “in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.” .
The survey measured changes in favorability ratings for Biden and Trump among Latino voters from December 2021 to March 2024.
It found that during this period, Biden's average favorability rating among Latinos declined by 12 points (from 53% to 41%), while Trump's favorability rating among Latinos declined by 8. points (24% to 32%).
Accordingly, Axios noted that over the past two years and four months of his presidency, Biden's “advantage over Trump among all Latinos” has declined by a total of 20 points (29% to 9%).
“Among Latinos who say they plan to vote in November, Biden's lead shrinks further to 3 points,” Axios continued.
The poll did not specifically ask about independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is seeking to appear on the ballot in most states. But 11% of registered Latinos said they expected to support neither Biden nor Trump, and 28% said they were unsure.
The poll also showed a clear disconnect between Latino voters' choice of candidates and parties.
More Hispanics and Latinos are abandoning Biden in favor of Trump, but the numbers don't appear to be benefiting the Republican Party as a whole.
“Among Latinos, Democrats appear to be closing in on Republicans in two areas where recent polls have shown Republicans primarily ahead: economic revitalization and crime control,” Axios reported.
“Republicans had a 3-point advantage on which party would do better on the economy, compared to a 7-point advantage in 2023,” the Axios report said. continued. “Republicans had a 4-point advantage on which party is better at dealing with crime, compared to 8 points a year ago.”
But when respondents were asked which candidate was better suited to address these issues, significantly more supported Trump.
“Latinos gave Trump a 22-point advantage over Biden on handling the economy and an 11-point advantage on fighting crime,” Axios said.
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Among Latino voters surveyed, Chris Jackson, senior vice president at Ipsos, said:[i]In nearly every case, Trump performs better than the Republican brand and Biden performs worse than the Democratic brand. ”
“If anything, Democrats are actually in a slightly better position on all kinds of issues compared to Republicans compared to when we asked this question last year in June 2023,” the poll found. the agency added.
On the morning of the poll's release, the Republican National Committee (RNC)-controlled X (formerly Twitter) account launched an attack, pointing out that “Biden is bleeding support from Hispanic voters.”
The RNC also criticized recent comments made by Biden in an interview with Spanish-language media outlet Univision. “Look at the road. [Trump] We’re talking about the Hispanic minority,” the incumbent president said.
“Of course Biden is flat out lying to manufacture division and hate,” the RNC X account commented.
Conservative journalist Kyle Becker also pointed out that this type of Democratic attack may not resonate with Latino voters.
“”[I]“Illegal alien'' is not the same as “Latino,'' Becker pointed out on Tuesday morning. “Americans are not complaining about Latinos who immigrate legally. Donald Trump's statements about criminal illegal aliens also do not equate to legal immigration.”
“President Trump referred to human traffickers, fentanyl smugglers, and cartel members as 'animals,' not all immigrants.”
“Latinos are starting to see through the lies in the media,” Becker concluded. “Democrats are destroying the economy and legal immigrants are recognizing the damage done to the country by illegal immigration.”
The support of Hispanic and Latino voters will be particularly important to Biden and Trump's chances in Arizona and Nevada, battleground states that many observers say could swing the election. .
According to an Axios report last month:[a]One-quarter of Arizona voters [will] Those voting in November are expected to be Latino. ” In Nevada, roughly one in five voters is Latino.
Last month, CatholicVote reported that in late February new york times / Siena poll “finds Trump with a convincing 6-point lead over Biden among Hispanic voters.”
Catholic Vote added at the time that “never in American history has a Republican presidential candidate won a majority of the Hispanic vote.”
The Hispanic and Latino vote has trended significantly and consistently to the right over the past few election cycles.
From CatholicVote's February report:
Trump lost the Hispanic vote to Biden by 21 points in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center. But this was a much smaller margin than in 2016, when Hillary Clinton beat Trump among Hispanics by 38 points.
In 2012, Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney among Hispanics by 44 points.
