DraftKings Network analyst Nick Friar uses the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub to look for potential NBA play next week based on the most popular betting systems of late.
new system tools of DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub Highlights trends over the past 7 days, past 30 days, and the entire season based on a variety of factors. In this article, we'll take a look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week, with the goal of finding other games that can be applied to those systems in next week's games.
There is one thing to note about the upcoming system that matches the sections throughout this article. NBA favorites/losers, spreads, and totals are typically not available until the night before the game. Also, some systems may be based on the results of previous games. Please make sure the games described in this section match before making your selection.
System: Road ATS underdog who didn't play the day before.
Recently, this system has increased significantly. Over the course of the season, this system has only yielded him 189 wins, 181 wins, and 7 losses. However, the season started off strong and experienced a severe drop-off in December (as seen in the full season table below). Since then, he has experienced several spikes, with the most recent being a 16-9 record over the past seven days.
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Two games fit into this system on Monday.
The Kings and Warriors are the two best teams against the spread when playing as road underdogs at 8-3 and 9-4, respectively. Resting in this setup, the Kings are 7-2 ATS and the Warriors are 7-3 ATS.
There are two solid choices, but Golden State also faces a Nets team that is 9-3 ATS as the home favorite. Brooklyn also records his ATS of 7-2 against resting opponents in this setting.
The Cavaliers haven't been as good as Brooklyn, but are the home favorites at 11-7 ATS. However, they are only 9-7 ATS as the home favorite when their opponent is rested. And last but not least, Cleveland is 3-4 ATS as the favorite to win at home against West opponents.
Possibility of system match: ATS with a road loser who did not play the previous day
| 2/5 | 2/6 | 2/7 | 2/8 | 2/9 | 2/10 | 2/11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/5 | 2/6 | 2/7 | 2/8 | 2/9 | 2/10 | 2/11 |
| SAC@CLE | Hou@India | Thor@cha | Dal@NYK Line | ATL @ PHI | OKC @ DAL | Boss@MIA |
| GSW @ BKN | MEM @ NYK Line | Cre@was | min@mil | Hou@Thor | DET@LAC | SAC@OKC |
| ORL@MIA | ATL@CEL | Chi@mem | It was @BOS | SA@BKN | ||
| Ming@Chi | GSW @ PHI | UTA@PHX | Cha@mil | mem@cha | ||
| OKC @ UTA | SA@MIA | Den@Lal | Nop@Lal | Chi@ORL | ||
| Mil @ PHX | DET@SAC | IND @ NYK Line | ||||
| NOP@LAC | CLE@TOR | |||||
| Time @ ATL | ||||||
| PHX@GSW |
System Picks for February 5th
SAC+4.5
System: If the favorite wins, the total is under
This play is 223 wins, 205 losses, and 7 draws for the season, so it's on the verge of breaking even. If it wasn't for the strength of his performance in last month's game, he could have even come close to breaking even. He is 80-53-1 in the system over the past 30 days. Over the past seven days, he's gone 21-13, a slight improvement from his month-long trend, but still on par. So this system has been working well for some time.
The following five games fit into this system on Monday.
- CLE vs. SAC
- CHA's LAL
- ATL's LAC
- BKN vs. GSW
- NOP vs. TOR
The over is 53-41-1 this season when the favorites play the second leg of back-to-back games, but LAC-ATL is my favorite play. The road favorite is under with a 9-3 record in back-to-back games over the past 30 days and is 18-15-1 under this season.
Additionally, the Clippers are 6-12 under the road title favorite this season. If that wasn't enough, his average total points in those 18 games is his 229.1 points, which is way off the mark for this game's total points.
Note: There is no table summarizing possible plays for this system throughout the week, as this play depends on the results of the favorites' previous games.
System Picks for February 5th
LAC-ATL 242 points or more
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All views expressed are my own. Although I am a DraftKings employee, I am not eligible to participate in his public DFS or DKSB contests.
What this article includes They do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
