Nick Friar uses the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub to search for likely NBA play next week based on the most popular betting systems.
On Tuesday, I destroyed the following two systems. We'll be using these systems continuously throughout this week, so if you read this article earlier in the week, you'll find some of the same information. However, this update includes Friday slate picks and additional information specific to those games.
You will also find not only the overall system, but also a record of my theatrical performance since Tuesday.
new system tools of DraftKings Sportsbook Statistics Hub Highlights trends over the past 7 days, past 30 days, and the entire season based on a variety of factors. In this article, we'll take a look at some of the systems that have been trending over the past week, with the goal of finding other games that can be applied to those systems in next week's games.
There is one thing to note about the upcoming system that matches the sections throughout this article. NBA favorites/losers, spreads, and totals are typically not available until the night before the game. Also, some systems may be based on the results of previous games. Please make sure the games described in this section match before making your selection.
System: East favors non-conference games total over
We adopted this system to begin the 2024 portion of the schedule, and it continues to be a reliable option.
Over the past seven days, the system has exploded with a 9-4 record. His nearly 70% success rate last week doesn't seem sustainable, but this has proven to be a strong investment throughout the season so far. With this setup, the over is 25-13-1 in the last 30 days. The season record is 45 wins, 30 losses, and 2 draws.
Looking at the history of this system, the over was 130-99-1 last season. This means that regression must occur at some point, but the success rate is still high.
System performance since January 16th
System – 1-3
My recommendation – 1-1
System Picks for January 19th
Looking ahead Tuesday, there were four games that could fit into this system. In the end, there are only three choices:
- CHA vs. SA
- BOS vs. Den
- IND vs. POR
This play resulted in a tough 0-3 result on Wednesday night. Here's how the teams listed above fared in non-conference play.
- SA 8-6-2
- Cha 6-7
- boss 8-4
- Den 8-6-1
- IND 4-7
- POR 2-10
When it comes to systems, here's how these teams performed so well.
- SA 8-5-2
- CHA N/A (advantageous against the West team for the first time this season)
- boss 7-4
- Den 1-0
- Guidelines 2-1
- POR 2-9
Despite these numbers, we arrived at CHA-SA. The two teams recently finished with 234 points, with LaMelo Ball returning from an extended absence. It's intangible, but knowing that while the ball was getting back on track, this guy had a chance for his team to run wild was huge. That's because Ball will only increase the tempo of his offense the more he plays, and there will be nothing to impede Charlotte's opponents' offensive production.
Pick: CHA-SA 235.5 and above
System: Home favorite ATS after loss
This play paid off last week as he went 8-2 and his hitting percentage over the past 30 days is 32-28-1. However, this season, with 82 wins, 79 losses, and 1 draw, it was essentially a coin toss.
System performance from January 17th to 18th
System – 3-1
My choice – 2-0
System Picks for January 19th
Two games will fit into this system on Friday. One of the options looks much more attractive than the other.
This is a reasonable rebounding spot for the Hornets. But I don't believe that LaMelo Ball's full effort will lead to victory. You do get points, but it doesn't necessarily mean you win.
That doesn't mean CHA can't be played on the ATS, but MIA is definitely a more attractive play considering the numbers.
MIA is 8-7 ATS as the home favorite and 7-6 as the home favorite when playing teams in the conference. Nothing groundbreaking, but enough to have faith in the Heat on Friday. That's because Atlanta is the worst team ATS on the road at 6-15. If we focus only on the road games in which they were active, the coverage improves slightly, but 4-8 is still a bottom-fifth coverage in this setting. If you cut out all games against Western Conference teams, that number drops to 2-8. This is the worst record in the NBA (with the exception of the Celtics, who have only participated once with this setup and are 0-1).
Pick: -8
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All views expressed are my own. Although I am a DraftKings employee, I am not eligible to participate in his public DFS or DKSB contests.
What this article includes They do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
