PDF to complete report
Important points:
- Median purchase rate increased by 1/8 ppt. In week 6 of 2024, it was 6 5/8% and is now down 1 1/8 ppt. From the series peak in week 43 of 2023.
- Mortgage News Daily reported the average. The 30-year interest rate as of February 12th is 6.96%th2024.
- Purchase volumes were down 35% compared to the same week in 2019 and down 10% year over year.
- Year-on-year HPA in December 2023 was 5.9%. It is expected to be around 5% in January, February 2024 and the first three weeks of March 2024.
- Year-over-year HPA performance remains strong despite subdued purchasing activity and relatively high rates. This is primarily due to high buyer qualification and appetite due to historically tight supply. Low unemployment, low foreclosures in most regions, work from home, and continued home price arbitrage opportunities further support HPA above inflation.
- Since mid-2022, the cash-out amount has almost completely disappeared as interest rates have risen sharply.
- The amount of cash out has also decreased significantly due to the rise in interest rates, but it has remained between 30,000 and 44,000 since November 2022. This is down more than 80% from the peak of 250,000 in October 2021.
- Things are almost certain to get worse for the mortgage industry before they get better. We expect the total volume of agency loans (combining refinance and purchase loans) to fall to between 150,000 and 175,000 by January 2024.
