(Bloomberg) — A year ago, crypto markets were in the doldrums, and the idea that Bitcoin might retest its all-time high near $69,000 became a reality. Twelve months later, several studies are now showing just that possibility.
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Technical analysis comparing the biggest digital asset's rise to $52,000 with past spikes suggests further gains are likely in the coming weeks. Some of those studies are listed below, but please note that the past is not always a reliable guide to the future, especially when it comes to a young and dynamic asset like Bitcoin.
weekly advance payment
Bitcoin price has tripled since the start of 2023 amid optimism for US exchange-traded funds and a looming reduction in token supply growth known as the halving did. The gains include four consecutive weeks of gains through Feb. 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Over the past five years, the yuan cryptocurrency has gained an average of 49% in three months after a four-week winning streak, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That would make Bitcoin worth about $78,000.
“The market environment for Bitcoin remains very strong,” said Richard Galvin, founder of DACM, an investment firm specializing in cryptocurrencies.
bumpy road
Elliott Wave research posits that markets tend to repeat wave patterns. Applying this method to Bitcoin suggests a pullback towards the $40,000 level before rallying to around $70,000. This compares to Bitcoin's all-time high of $68,992 in November 2021, when the world was awash in stimulus.
derivatives market
Speculators use option contracts for a variety of trading approaches. Data from his Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange, shows that Bitcoin call spreads are currently one of his most popular strategies. This suggests that investors recognize the potential for further gains in Bitcoin, but not necessarily significant increases. A bull call spread involves the purchase of a call option, which is partially funded by the simultaneous sale of a contract with the same maturity at a higher strike price.
“The overall options market is currently pricing in a roughly 20% to 25% chance of a new all-time high before halving, which is a pretty fair estimate for us,” said Digital Asset co-founder Caroline Moron. I can see it,” he said. Derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets.
Bitcoin rose 1% to $52,333 as of 8:20 a.m. in New York on Monday, nearing its highest level in more than two years. Among the smaller coins, WorldCoin token, a project co-founded by OpenAI's Sam Altman, stands out, having surged about 40% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko statistics.
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