Dynasty leaguers are officially in purgatory when it comes to the NFL schedule. Free agency has ended, but the NFL Draft is still a few weeks away. All that remains for us is trade negotiations, team visits, etc. Below are some of those developments and how they could affect the dynasty's roster.
As Aiyuk wishes
Brandon Aiyuk talks about his contract and Instagram stories 💰 @ShannonSharpe @ochocinco pic.twitter.com/Mq2a1xdNnV
— Nightcap (@NightcapShow_) March 29, 2024
San Francisco 49ers receiver Brandon Aiyuk chose the best time to have the best season of his career. In his fourth year as a pro, he had 75 receptions on 105 targets for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns, playing an integral role in the 49ers' offense that propelled the team to the Super Bowl. . For Aiyuk, it was the culmination of a career that has steadily climbed since he was selected 25th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. Of course, that means he is expected (and deserves) to receive a paycheck soon. He has one year left on the final option on his rookie contract, after which he will be a free agent, but Aiyuk is widely expected to extend his big contract.
Where he signs that contract is another matter. Aiyuk made headlines this week when she posted a cryptic Instagram Story and then appeared on the podcast mentioned above. He is not shy to explain his feelings and no one objects. But the NFL is a business, and it remains to be seen whether the 49ers will pony up. This is one of the biggest headlines heading into the NFL Draft.
Dynasty influence: As mentioned above, Aiyuk started his career as the No. 46 receiver in Dynasty ADP and has gradually worked his way up both the real world and Dynasty rankings to No. 14.
Ironically, his real-world fantasy rankings have been even better, ranking as a bottom WR3 in fantasy scoring in each of his first two seasons and rising to a top-10 option last season. Aiyuk is a rare young dynasty asset whose dynasty rankings lag behind actual production.
The good news for Aiyuk and his dynasty of managers is that wherever he falls, he should be able to produce the same fantasy numbers he's always had. The recent history of wide receivers being traded in their prime has been very good for everyone involved. Consider that Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill all made All-Pro or Pro Bowl teams in the years they switched teams.
Aiyuk dynasty coaches have nothing to worry about this offseason. Aiyuk is the WR1 he is, whether in San Francisco or elsewhere.
dobbins and textiles
A cheerful JK Dobbins?
Healthy JK Dobbins https://t.co/OmIVAr7Koa
— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) March 26, 2024
If JK Dobbins' career were to end tomorrow, it would be one of the biggest disappointments in recent memory. After being selected in his second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Dobbins quickly became a key part of Baltimore's running back his game. He totaled 805 yards on just 134 carries in his rookie season, averaging an impressive 6.0 yards per carry. He added nine touchdowns and helped rank in the top 20 in fantasy scoring.
It would be no exaggeration to say that expectations were high heading into his second season. Dobbins established himself at the top of the depth chart and was drafted very high in a dynasty startup.
But as the graph shows, that wasn't what was intended. Dobbins tore his ACL in the 2021 preseason, but things haven't changed since then. He missed all of the 2021 season and most of the 2022 season due to further injuries. He was healthy for the 2023 season, but suffered another major injury that ruptured his Achilles tendon. Right now, his value is far from low, and unlike Brandon Aiyuk, he's in the worst possible moment, waiting for a new contract in free agency.
Dynasty influence: Dobbins' dynasty value is at an all-time low, barely registering as a top-50 running back. It's inevitable that he won't be hired, but now that the first group of running backs has signed in free agency, the next player to be on the roster is a player like Dobbins. Dobbins has been cleared for football activities, and despite dealing with a once-in-a-lifetime leg injury, he's only 25 years old.
Per our trade analyzer, Dobbins is currently valued as a late third-round rookie pick. With such a weak rookie running back class, the pick might be worth the risk associated with Dobbins. His value will definitely increase if he signs with the team, and all it takes is one injury (to another player) and he can suddenly be back in the starting lineup.
Dobbins doesn't make much sense if you're rebuilding a dynasty roster. But if you're a playoff-bound team drafting toward the latter half of the rookie draft, he might be an option.
watson cold
Consider that the “injury-prone” label is greatly exaggerated in the NFL.
But for a player who has suffered five hamstring injuries since 2021, something is clearly wrong. It will be hard to tell if Christian Watson has solved this.
From the Packers official website: pic.twitter.com/c9HE4VtZQA
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) March 29, 2024
Similar to JK Dobbins above, Green Bay Packers receiver Christian Watson also had about a season to prove himself before injuries set in. Although he missed a few games (a sign of things to come), his rookie season was his 14th. , Aaron Rodgers' final season in Green Bay, he totaled 41 receptions, 611 yards, and seven touchdowns. He ranked in the top 25 in fantasy scoring among all receivers and was poised to be Jordan Love's top target.
However, that wasn't meant to be, as injuries started shortly after the 2023 season began. It was primarily his hamstring that caused Watson to stumble at the beginning and end of his sophomore season. Overall, Watson played in just nine games and totaled 28 receptions, 422 yards, and five touchdowns.
So while it's great that Watson and the Packers are trying to keep him healthy through 2024 and address the root cause of the problem, that perception isn't going to go away anytime soon.
Dynasty influence: Watson has spent the entire offseason recovering and avoiding setbacks. If I were the manager of the Watson dynasty, I would want to trade him. He's still No. 38 in DLF Ranker's receiver rankings. Still, three Packers receivers outperformed Watson last year. Romeo Doubes (23), Jaden Reed (23) and Dontaevion Wicks (22) were all younger than Watson.
According to DLF Trade Analyzer, Watson still has some value. If you were an active manager in the Watson dynasty, you would move him for something close to what's out there.
Michael has been playing fantasy football for over 20 years, with his mother funding his first team when he was in fourth grade. He has contributed to various fantasy football publications, most recently Pro Football, where he spent five years writing on the fantasy side.
