Voter turnout in the Bay Area for the March 5 primary has hovered around 35%, and that number could rise slightly when counts are finalized on April 4.
According to data released Thursday, March 14, by the California Secretary of State's Office, turnout in the nine-county area is about the same as in Santa Cruz, Monterey and San Joaquin counties.
“Early voting by mail was surprisingly low,” Marin County Registrar Linda Roberts said. “However, on Election Day, we received approximately 45,000 mail-in ballots from post offices, drop boxes, and return mail from vote centers.”
“The final turnout is likely to be about 53%,” Roberts said.
On Thursday, Marin County reported a 46% turnout among registered voters, the highest in the greater Bay Area.
San Francisco was a close second at 45%, matching Registrar John Arntz's historical average for his city/county.
“The March 2024 primary vote share is likely to be close to 47%, which is within 3% of the average for presidential primaries since 1972,” Arntz said.
Alameda County reported just 25% turnout as of Thursday, the lowest of any county in the region.
“We continue to see low voter turnout across the state, and this is a primary election that typically has lower turnout than the general election,” Alameda County elections officials said in an email. “This election is likely to see turnout in the 30th percentile, which is lower than the March 2020 presidential primary.”
Statewide voter turnout was about 32% as of Thursday morning.
Elizabeth Bergman, associate professor of political science at California State University East Bay, said the low numbers are not surprising given the overall lack of big-name issues and competitive races. said.
“At the county level, this primary was not an exciting one,” Bergman said.
Given the fact that both Democratic President Joe Biden and his likely Republican challenger Donald Trump ran away with easy wins in the California primary, no proposals will be on the March 5th ballot. Other than 1, there wasn't much that would interest voters.
The hotly contested Proposition 1, Gov. Gavin Newsom's $6.4 billion mental health treatment ballot plan, narrowly led with 50.2% of votes cast Thursday.
Bergman said Proposition 1's turnout was impressive given the lackluster results on March 5, but it clearly wasn't enough of a catalyst to drive widespread voter turnout. said.
“It's about competitiveness and people using their time wisely,” she said. “They don't want to waste time and feel that if their vote matters, it will be counted.”
Bergman also said people tend to avoid voting for or against issues they don't understand or candidates they're unfamiliar with.
“People feel very uncomfortable voting when they don't know what to vote for. That's why they look at this ballot and say I can't accept any of it.” she said.
“People who vote infrequently are not stupid voters. I think that's a mistake that a lot of the media makes,” Bergman said. “They are rational about their time and knowledge. They know their time and knowledge. They are making rational decisions.”
He also noted that demographics play a large role in overall electoral participation, with low-income voters and voters of color voting less often than higher-income voters and white voters.
