BYU vs Texas Tech odds, picks

BYU vs Texas Tech odds

This is a very interesting 4-on-5 matchup between BYU and Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals.

Although these are two supernova offenses, the Cougars and Red Raiders generate offense in different ways.

It is questionable whether either defense can stop the opponent's offense.

The Cougars run a five-out, zoom-action offense. Essentially, this means taking a ton of off-ball screen actions (stagger screens, spinning screens, etc.) to generate open 3-point shots.

And BYU knows how to make those shots. Aly Khalifa, Juskson Robinson, Darrin Hall, Trevin Nell, Noah Waterman, and Richie Saunders combined for 309 of 841 3-point shots, a ridiculous 37%. It becomes.

Waterman and Khalifa are must-sees when watching BYU games. Both are among the best stretch big men in the game, with shooting strokes that are hard to imagine given their size.

Pay attention when they're on the floor together…

Surprisingly, the Cougars' perimeter shooting wasn't very good in conference play, dropping to 32%. But it still generates a decent amount of open jumpers, and ShotQuality predicts some positive regression based on the “quality” of the attempts allowed.

I'm not too worried.

They were able to make up for that setback with a better interior offense. Husseini Traore and other BYU big men dominated in the screen-and-roll game, making it easy for the Cougars to create an interior offense when the defense was so spread out.

There's a reason BYU leads the Big 12 in 2-point shooting (57%).

However, Mark Pope's offense is a bit gimmicky, making up for his lack of athleticism with elite sharp shooting.

And BYU's lack of athleticism is often exposed on the defensive end, with elite dribble penetrators and shot creators dominating from the lateral.

Unfortunately for BYU, Texas Tech is full of insane dribble breakers and shot creators.

Pop Isaacs and Joe Toussaint lead an offense that ranks third in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency. The two are stud ball screen initiators, but they can score both on and off the ball, and the Red Raiders' secondary is probably working better.

Between those two and swingman Darrion Williams, the Red Raiders can solve any defense through pure creation, which creates monster problems for BYU.

But Grant McCasland has not effectively transferred the no-middle plan to Lubbock.

McCasland is a protégé of Scott Drew Baylor and has become synonymous with the upper middle class. A no-middle is a scheme designed to force the ball handler toward the sideline or baseline while providing additional support in the paint and protecting the paint and rim at all costs.

However, the Raiders are unable to effectively execute this plan as it is currently constructed, and the Raiders are torn apart at the point of attack. Toussaint and Isaacs simply aren't great defenders at the point of attack, especially the former.

And if Warren Washington is still injured, the Raiders will be in a tough spot. He is currently on the day-to-day list with a foot injury, and his suitability for the postseason remains to be seen. When he's off the court, the team's rim defense is eight points worse.

What's more important in this matchup is that no-middle schemes are extremely vulnerable to sharp passes and good weakside shots. Given its inherently aggressive and scrambling nature, this scheme leaves a lot of opportunity for weakside spot-ups.

Texas Tech ranks eighth in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage and 13th in open 3-point percentage, and BYU epitomizes crisp passing and weakside shooting.

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In the previous head-to-head competition, they scored a total of 163 points, significantly exceeding their final total of 144.5 points.

I expect the same in the rematch.

By aiming higher, BYU could disrupt Texas Tech's no-middle plan. And in Washington's absence, the Cougars could crush the Red Raiders with a crisp screen-and-roll game.

On the other hand, the Cougars will not be able to keep up with Texas Tech's elite dribbling and shot creation ability defensively. The Cougars don't have the lateral athleticism to keep up with Isaacs or Toussaint.

Isaacs, for example, scored 32 points on 16-of-19 shooting (6-of-9) in the regular season meetings. There was no hope for BYU's defense.

This all played out in regular season matchups, and we can expect a similar performance, especially in the Big 12 Tournament, where Washington has been held back.

I'm willing to bet on another high-scoring event, even if it's in a tournament setting.

choose: 153 or more

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