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US futures rise on Powell's return

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U.S. stock futures rose further on Thursday, looking upbeat ahead of a second day of close testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Techs once again led the way with Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) futures up 0.4% and S&P 500 (^GSPC) futures up 0.2%. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) swung along a flat line after all three gauges closed in the green.

Stocks rose as the market said Powell's first day of questioning by lawmakers on economic and monetary policy did not bring bad news or surprises. The Fed chief stuck to reiterating the message from policymakers that there is no need to rush into easing, but said a rate cut was likely before the end of the year.

Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) rose for the fifth straight day, hitting a new high above $2,160 as the prospect of a rate cut gives fresh impetus to a record rally.

Mr. Powell's appearance on the Senate floor is next, with investors watching closely for more transparency and further clues about the timing of rate cuts. The calculations will also factor in upcoming updates on consumer credit and unemployment claims ahead of Friday's important monthly jobs report.

On the corporate front, shares of Victoria's Secret (VSCO) plunged more than 29% in pre-market trading after the lingerie maker missed sales estimates.

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  • Amazing analysis of the day today…

    Perhaps it's time to reconsider Microsoft's (MSFT) decline.

    Over the past 25 business days, Microsoft stock has fallen 0.4%, while the S&P 500 index has risen 4%. The overall Mag 7 has been trading on a volatile note lately, and Microsoft hasn't been affected either.

    EvercoreISI analyst Kirk Materne's new predictions about Microsoft's AI opportunities could reignite the bull market.

    Here's what he said today in a new note to customers:

    “Aggregating bottom-up Gen AI analysis and looking out five years, we find that Gen AI could add up to $82.5 billion to Microsoft’s revenue growth in 2028, based on a “base case” scenario. I am estimating. This means our revenue will increase by 24%. CY28 revenue forecast (assuming “core” Microsoft's 23-28 revenue CAGR of 9%). This equates to an increase in EPS of $5.10, assuming a 45% increase in net income. This is slightly lower than the previous year's increased profits. The “Case” scenario represents an incremental revenue opportunity of $142.8 billion and an incremental EPS of $12.07. The updated CY27 AI incremental revenue forecast of $54.6 billion is $4.2 billion higher than the previous “base case” forecast from June 2023. is off to a strong start, but we're still in the earnings phase, and based on our analysis, we expect Gen AI to maintain an upward bias on Microsoft's revenue and his EPS forecast for the foreseeable future. . ”

    Materne rates Microsoft an outperformer with a price target of $475, 17% above current levels.

  • Deutsche Bank boards the Bitcoin rocket ship

    Departure progress.

    The Deutsche Bank team today published a note looking at five reasons why there is room for Bitcoin prices to rise further. It's too early to sleep with a detailed explanation of all five reasons, so let's focus on one. That is the possibility of the Bitcoin halving event in April.

    Investment banks are cautioning against Bitcoin's bullish movements around previous halving events.

    “In the 30 days before the November 2012 halving, prices rose 5%. Before the July 2016 halving, we saw an even more significant 13% rise. Most recently, in May There was a significant price increase of 27% in the month preceding the halving of 2020. ”

    A timeline chart to help you see how this has played out historically:

    Bitcoin bulls are waiting for another halving in April. Bitcoin bulls are waiting for another halving in April.

    Bitcoin bulls are waiting for another halving in April. (Deutsche Bank)



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