The Super Bowl is over and the offseason is here. For many, it's a break from the weekly rigors of fantasy football. For Dynasty players, it's just the beginning. Below are developments this week that could shape your Dynasty team.
Tee It Up
The Bengals are expected to use the franchise tag on Tee Higgins. 🎟️ pic.twitter.com/jt6c7hFMzC
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) February 13, 2024
Tee Higgins is potentially one of the biggest names on the free agent market. Or, the Bengals could sign him to a franchise deal to keep him in Cincinnati for another year. The answer won't be known for months, meaning the value of Higgins' dynasty remains up in the air.
For the dynasty's managers, he has generated solid, if not spectacular, profits. He averaged almost exactly 1,000 receiving yards in his first three seasons as a Bengal and missed five games in 2023. However, while his total receiving yards decreased due to his injury, his efficiency has never been better. Case in point, he averaged 15.6 yards per reception. This beat his previous career high by almost a full yard. The fact that he did so well despite playing second fiddle to perennial Pro Bowler Ja'Marr Chase is even more impressive. This makes the Bengals' pending decision to recall Higgins a big one.
Dynasty influence: The Bengals' overall offense has declined in terms of their dynasty value due to injuries to Higgins, Joe Burrow, and others.
No one has had a greater influence on me than Higgins. Higgins started 2023 as a top-10 dynasty receiver, but he only bottomed out outside of the top-20. Things returned to normal in the offseason, and Higgins reached a ranking that showed more positive results. His actual worth. Remember, even though Higgins was a top-10 dynasty receiver, he never actually finished a pro season as a top-10 fantasy receiver. He functioned as a WR2 midfielder and came close to it, but he could never claim to lead a fantasy or dynasty team. His range, which stabilizes in his mid-teens, is more in line with what he has accomplished.
What if he moves to another team? It's logical to think that his value would increase even more if he signed as the team's top pass catcher, and there are plenty of teams that need him. If you were Higgins' current manager and he was leaving, I would offer him a trade offer worth a WR1 acquisition. But assuming he stays in Cincinnati and everyone comes back healthy, a mid-range WR2 ranking is exactly where he could and should be.
tony up
Tony Pollard said he finally felt “back” after breaking his leg against the Panthers in Week 11.
PFF's best rusher after Week 11…
Tony Pollard.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) February 13, 2024
2023 has not been the year that Tony Pollard and his dynasty of managers were hoping for. He played as a change-of-pace back before he was eventually given the keys to the offense as the starting running back. However, due to recovery from a serious foot injury sustained in last year's playoffs and heavy workload, Pollard has not been as effective as he used to be. He averaged over 5 yards per carry the past two seasons, but averaged just 4.0 yards per carry in 2023.
Overall, Pollard was able to match last year's rushing yard totals (1,007 in 2023, 1,005 in 2022), but needed 59 more carries to accomplish that. The same goes for the receiving game, with 371 receiving yards on 39 receptions in 2022, while Pollard only had 311 receiving yards on 55 receptions. In total, Pollard had 75 more touches in 2023, but dropped a spot from the eighth-highest scoring fantasy. He has fallen to 18th place. Isn't that amazing, Bob!
But if, like Pollard himself, he blames his reduced efficiency on injury and has a full offseason to recover, what will next season look like?
Dynasty influence: After an offseason of hype heading into the 2023 campaign, Pollard's dynasty value has returned to previous levels.
This means that if Pollard can return to a highly effective change-of-pace role alongside the grinder, he could have a fantasy season like the one he had in 2022, when he was a top-10 fantasy running back. I'm saying that.
His current team would benefit from such an arrangement and should be able to take advantage of it. Pollard's down season means he won't be as expensive as he could be as a free agent. And the Cowboys are in dire need of depth at this position. The Pollard Dynasty coaches should keep him around for now in hopes that Dallas can give him some help.
And if Pollard leaves for another team, all bets are off and his value will fluctuate once again.
El Geno
It's highly unlikely that Seattle will improve on Geno Smith. https://t.co/rjdBtADfha
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) February 15, 2024
Several teams are expected to change quarterbacks this offseason, either through the draft or free agency. But the Seattle Seahawks, who acquired Geno Smith for another year, won't be one of them. As the tweet above explains, the draft pick is too far away from an elite prospect for Seattle, and the free agent class wasn't that much better than Smith anyway, so it's better for Seattle. There weren't many options.
It's been a roller coaster career for Smith. He entered the league as a starter for the Jets, bounced around several teams before earning a starting spot in Seattle, and is currently playing in his second consecutive Pro Bowl.
So, with Smith locked in as a starter for at least another season, what does that mean for his dynasty value?
Dynasty influence: Smith still has value, at least in super-flex leagues, and is a low-cost option for teams if they need a second QB. Just a year ago, he was a top-five fantasy quarterback. And in 2024, the Seahawks will throw 2023 first-round picks Jackson Smith-Njiba and DK Metcalf in addition to the players they add. His current DLF ranking of 21st seems low, but that's before the influx of rookie quarterbacks enters the rankings. He has at least another year left before he becomes a starter, and could potentially be longer if he plays well like Jared Goff. Be careful if you miss out on a quarterback in the rookie draft.