What a wild and woolly month it was. Temperatures, which at one point a few weeks ago bottomed at 16 degrees below zero and 10 degrees below the monthly average, have rebounded significantly and are expected to end up around 4 degrees below the January average after today. . After 13 consecutive days of below-average temperatures, today marks the 10th consecutive day of above-average temperatures.
We hit 61 degrees on Monday, but today should be better. The current record is he 70 degrees and was set in 2009… Seems safe, but I'll give it a try as a possibility. I wouldn't be shocked if he could probably push a little more than 70 degrees in some parts of the west side of the region. Heading towards Lawrence or Topeka.
It's a truly amazing change of direction.
Then there's the weekend storm…and the data from last night and this morning is a little more interesting. Because there are indications that the rain that has developed is coming north and could possibly stall or have a hard time getting into the KC area. Then, as the storm moves further south of the region, it will turn back south again…so this weekend's rain situation is a bit confusing.
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forecast:
Today: Sunny and warm, with highs in the mid-60s.
Tonight: Sunny, not too cold, with lows in the mid 30s.
Tomorrow: Clouds will be variable, with a chance of light rain, especially in the north. Prices hit highs again in the early 60s
Friday: A few showers possible in the afternoon or evening, but will remain mild with highs near 60 degrees and winds.
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Discussion:
There's an incredible storm brewing in the Eastern Pacific Ocean…and the satellite view of it yesterday was amazing.
A storm off the northwest coast of the Pacific Ocean. The center of that storm will move toward the British Columbia region, then stall and begin moving south. However, at the southern end of the entire system, a portion is expected to break away and streak toward California over the next 36 hours, before cutting into the southwestern United States on Friday.
This will be a storm that will bring a lot of moisture to California…with a follow-up storm arriving early next week.
But this storm will release moisture…until Saturday evening.
It rains a lot on the coast, and it snows in the mountains…
For us, we're not only monitoring that system, but also a much smaller system that went down this morning in the southwestern United States.
This system is actually scheduled to move into the area tomorrow…and will bring a ton of mid-level and upper-level moisture to the area, but will remain fairly dry below about 13,000 feet. I think there could be some sprinkles or something in some areas, especially in northern KC, but again, temperatures should remain pretty mild overall.
On Friday, we are in a sort of no man's land. A few showers are possible as low-level moisture flows into the region from the Gulf, raising dew points. It won't take long for at least some light rain to fall, but significant amounts of rain are not expected at this time. Part of the eastern Pacific storm will move into the southwestern United States on Saturday and then into the southern Plains…it will be more clearly visible once you get up to about 18,000 feet or so. Watch as it hurtles through East Texas and drops into Los Angeles.
So what happens before the upper level storm is that the rain starts in the southern Plains and moves northward. However, this rain will begin to lose momentum as it moves north along I-35 and into more stable air. How far north it reaches will determine rain conditions Saturday. Some models make very little profit over the weekend. Areas northeast and north of KC or farther from KC are likely to get very little.
There is a chance of at least 1/10 inch of rain, but not very high in the EURO ensemble
This brings the probability of the GFS ensemble a little closer to metro…
So we're kind of on the brink, and with the new NAM that's come along, we're not going to get much of anything most of Saturday. There will be a few showers Friday, but total amounts will be less than 1/10 of an inch.
This may become more of a trend and it will be interesting to see how GFS deals with this. The new ICON model launched today embraces this idea in preparation for all the rain through Saturday.
We are really on the precipice. However, most data shows areas toward northern Missouri and north-central Missouri have little or no impact.
Temperatures will be in the 60s tomorrow and possibly in the 50s Friday. Saturday is expected to be in the 50s as well, and Sunday will probably be closer to 50 degrees. In fact, temperatures are currently not expected to drop below average into next week. Next week we'll have more 50's and maybe 60's as well.
February begins calmly.
Featured photos are from Jerry Keeney along frozen Smithville Lake…he writes…”These are from the Eagle's View Trailhead on a portion of the lake in Paradise, Missouri It was photographed.”
Joe
