The United States has more working-class voters than any other voting bloc, and these blue-collar voters could be the deciding factor in this year's presidential election. However, political parties have not been successful in addressing the needs and concerns of low-income Americans.
Political analysts have spent a great deal of effort trying to figure out how Democrats and Republicans can gain an advantage over working-class voters (broadly defined, adults with college degrees and hourly wages). Yahoo Finance contacted the source directly. We conducted an online survey between January 23 and 26 asking people who identify as working class what they would like to see in their national leader, and received 1,269 responses.
Not surprisingly, 75% said they were dissatisfied with American leadership. Only 15% said they were satisfied. And it's not just current President Joe Biden they're fed up with.
When asked which political party they trust most to protect their interests, the Democratic or Republican parties, the most common answer was “neutral” at 46%. Only 25% cited Republicans and 22% cited Democrats. Respondents biased Republicans by 10 percentage points, so a 3-point Republican lead is hardly impressive to voters.
As with other party affiliation surveys, independents were the largest group in this study, accounting for 45% of respondents. Thirty-two percent say they are a Republican or lean toward the Republican Party, and 22% say they are a Democrat or lean toward the Democratic Party.
What do working-class voters want? Political operatives are obsessed with this question, but it's probably not that complicated. We asked respondents what the biggest long-term problem is in the United States and provided 10 multiple-choice answers. The most common category was illegal immigration, cited by 21%. The next highest cost was medical expenses at 15%. Cultural decline was next at 14% and high inflation at 10%.
We investigated this issue in two other ways. After asking what the biggest issue was, we asked each respondent what they most wanted from their country's leadership. Strengthening law and order was the most popular choice at 19%, followed by immigration at 18%. When asked about crime in the previous question, only 3% cited it as the country's biggest problem. Therefore, it may be safe to assume that “stronger law and order” has more to do with the migrant crisis than with street violence.
Another big thing people want is better healthcare, cited by 12% of respondents. What people want from their country's leaders generally aligns with what they think is the biggest problem.
Finally, we asked respondents to tell us in their own words, without any questions asked, what they most want from their government. The 1,269 responses echoed many of the previous responses citing illegal immigration, health care, and inflation. But there was another recurring theme that wasn't included in the multiple-choice menu. That is better cooperation between the two political parties and a more competent government.
Example answer:
“Compromise on things and do your damn job!”
“I want politics to be a service, not a career.”
“Let's unite the country.”
“Leaders need to work together and spend less time arguing over things that don't matter to average Americans.”
Now, ask yourself which political party seems to understand what ordinary Americans care about. It's easy to see why “neither” is the winning answer. Biden's Democratic Party has launched measures to improve health care, most notably the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which President Obama signed into law when Biden was vice president. The ACA currently provides coverage to a record 21.3 million Americans.
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Given that Biden signed the 2021 infrastructure law and the 2022 semiconductor bill with support from some Republicans, voters may deserve some credit for the bipartisanship they are seeking.Biden sometimes brags about his friends with “across the aisle” and it even seems to mean that.
Meanwhile, Biden's Democratic Party lacks a coherent plan to deal with the surge of migrants crossing the southwest border and dispersing across the country, and the problem has become so severe that “sanctuary cities” Even Democratic mayors are asking for help. Biden has received the worst ratings in polls for his handling of immigration, and that could be a loss in November.
Republicans claim to be the party of tougher border security, but it turns out they don't actually have the power to pass meaningful immigration reform, when they actually don't want to. As President Trump has repeatedly reminded Republicans in Congress, immigration is too important a political issue to actually solve the problem.
Of course, when Trump was president, he tried to build a border wall, keep Muslims out, and do many other things to keep America the way it is. His measures were so harsh, cruel and extreme that they caused an inevitable backlash. So it now appears that the only options on immigration are Biden's chaos or Trump's brutality.
The Republican Party's stance on health care is “Let's reduce the burden of health care.” Trump still talks about repealing the ACA, even though Republicans tried and failed to do so when he was president and controlled both houses of Congress. Fortunately for them, they failed because it's hard to imagine a political move dumber than depriving voters of access to doctors.
The obvious question is why no party actually delivers what the majority of voters want. Sigh. As Louis Teixeira of the American Enterprise Institute points out, the Democratic Party has become a party of the “Brahmin left,” with college graduates and urbanites replacing the blue-collar workers who once made up the Democratic Party's core base. The department's elite are placed there. All the cultural bullshit comes from there. But Biden cannot win with these voters alone.
Meanwhile, Trump has turned the Republican Party into a cult of personality driven by grievance and hatred rather than a broader appeal to improve the country. Trump wants to improve the lives of his supporters and punish everyone else, with no particular regard for the law or other rules that everyone else must follow. Will it unite the country? Insulting will increase your rating.
Parties need working-class votes, so Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump and their surrogates will spend the next 10 months trying to say the right thing to gain an advantage among blue-collar voters. Our research shows that most voters are aware of its shortcomings. But that doesn't help provide better options in November.
Rick Newman is Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @rickjnewman.
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