If the Texas Tech basketball team wants to be seriously considered as a Big 12 contender, it needs to rack up some important road wins against top conference rivals. So far, Tech is 1-1 in league play and will look to strengthen its NCAA Tournament resume with a win over No. 11 Oklahoma on Saturday, riding into its home arena against a higher-level opponent. Another opportunity is offered.
Going into this contest, neither team seems to have a huge advantage. ESPN.com's matchup predictions give him a 63.8% chance of the Sooners winning, but this game feels like it could be much more of a contest than that.
Tech leads the Big 12 standings at 4-1 and is the only team in the league with only one conference loss, while the Sooners are 3-3. Of course, everyone expects the Sooners to play with urgency and hunger after losing their home game to Texas 75-60 on Tuesday night.
These teams are fairly similar in terms of offensive production, with OU averaging 78.2 points per game (6th in the Big 12) and Tech averaging 76.7 points per game (9th in the Big 12). Additionally, defensively, OU is even closer with 65.5 points allowed (5th in the Big 12) and Tech at 66.2 points allowed (6th in the Big 12).
Both teams have similar NCAA Tournament resumes, each going 2-3 in Quad 1 games. Therefore, the team that comes out on top will take a big step towards solidifying its place in the Big Dance.
If the Sooners beat Texas Tech, the board will likely be a big reason why. That's because OU is a much stronger rebounding team.
In terms of rebound margin, OU ranks fifth in the conference at +6.3. Meanwhile, Tech ranks 13th at +2.8.
However, in Osaka University's final game, they were overwhelmed through the glass. Texas had a 40-24 advantage in this important statistic, which helped them pull off the upset on the road. But interestingly, in the previous two conference losses, the Sooners were actually able to win the board battles (vs. TCU and Kansas).
Meanwhile, Tech has lost the rebound battle in four of its five Big 12 games. The only team Tech has outrebounded in league play is currently winless Oklahoma State, which Tech has won by just one rebound.
The 3-point arc could be where the Red Raiders get the win on Saturday. Playing in an opponent's arena usually makes it harder to shoot, but the Red Raiders are a much better 3-point shooting team than the Sooners.
Tech ranks third in the Big 12 in shooting 36.7% as a team from deep. Meanwhile, OU is shooting just 34.1% as a team, which ranks ninth in the Big 12.
In total, Tech averages 8.6 goals per game. OU averages 7.4.
Along those lines, OU has lost four games this year, shooting just 27.3 percent from 3-point range. In none of those games, the Sooners didn't shoot better than his 31% from downtown. So Tech will have to keep the Sooners from getting hot from long range on Saturday.
It will be interesting to see how this game plays out, as each of these teams will be led in scoring by two guards. Tech's Pop Isaacs and Joe Toussaint are averaging 30.2 points per game, while OU's two leading scorers, guards Javian McCollum and Otega Oweh, are averaging 28.4 points per game. .
But the thing about OU is that no other player on the roster scores more than 10 points per game. The Sooners have six players averaging between 9.7 and 6.4 points, but their scoring depth could be an asset.
The key individual matchup in this match could be Darrion Williams of the Institute of Technology and Jaron Moore of Osaka University. Williams is the glue at Tech, averaging 9.3 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, while Moore is a 6-foot-7 junior averaging 9.7 points and 5.8 rebounds.
Williams is coming off a relatively quiet two-game stretch. Against Houston and BYU, he only had 12 total points and 12 total rebounds.
Meanwhile, Moore has scored 16 points and 15 points in two of the last three games. That includes 15 points and 5 rebounds in his last game.
Moore is an athletic wing who can command games, and will be a difficult defensive assignment for Williams. Williams playing close to even will have a bigger impact on this game than Tech's past two games, especially considering the Sooners will likely overload Pop Isaacs to slow the Big 12's momentum. It will be essential to be able to provide Top scorer in conference play.
