You've probably heard that Major League Baseball is facing an ace shortage. That's true. That's what's happening.
There are eight current Cy Young Award winners on the injured list, including Spencer Strider, Justin Steele, Shane McClanahan, Framber Valdez and Kodai Chiga. Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to hit, but he can't throw.
Still, let's at least be optimistic. That is, by adopting the perspective that all ace absences are actually just waiting for the ace vacancy to be filled.
There are eight pitchers in their 20s heading in that direction in 2024. Although there is no player established as an ace yet, I would like you to take your time and think about it. They all have great benefits, and we're just beginning to take advantage of them.
Each is above 30, so don't get your hopes up assuming there's no long-term upside. Tyler Glasnow, Ronel Blancoor Shota Imanaga here.and in between Logan Webb, Dylan Cease, freddy peralta and Logan Gilbert They are still in their 20s and too established to fit the demands here.
As for the players who have qualified, let's count down to the players who have come the furthest as up-and-coming aces. Before we get into that, here are some honorable mentions.
RHP Cutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox
Age: 28 years old
2024 stats: 4 GS, 21.1 IP, 9 H (0 HR), 24 K, 8 BB, 0.42 ERA
There's an air of “too good to be true” about Crawford, but ERA isn't the only data point that highlights his past inability to hit. He ranks second among pitchers with at least 15 innings pitched, with a batting average of .122.
LHP Mackenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
Age: 25 years old
2024 stats: 3 GS, 16.0 IP, 14 H (1 HR), 23 K, 5 BB
Gore is one of the most improved players in MLB in both fastball velocity and whiff rate, so perhaps he's finally ready to live up to his former expectations as an elite pitching prospect. However, for now, his 11-strikeout performance against the Punchless Athletics on April 13 is being talked about too much.
RHP Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants
Age: 27 years old
2024 stats: 4 GS, 23.0 IP, 15 H (1 HR), 18 K, 6 BB, 1.57 ERA
Perhaps the Giants knew what they were doing when they signed Hicks as a starter? That certainly seems like it. His strikeout rate is a little low for a first-line starter, but his walk rate is pretty low and he gets a lot of ground balls.
RHP Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
Age: 27 years old
2024 stats: 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 14 H (2 HR), 24 K, 2 BB, 2.60 ERA
Ryan has 12 times more strikeouts than walks, which is never a bad way to live your life. But while his fastball was great, the jury is still out on whether he has a reliable second ball.
LHP Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 28 years old
2024 stats: 4 GS, 26.0 IP, 16 H (2 HR), 27 K, 4 BB, 1.00 ERA
Suarez showed promise in spurts from 2021 to 2023, but it didn't turn out like this. His walk rate, strikeout rate, and hard-hitting rate have all improved, so all he has to do now is endure the rigors of the season.
Year: twenty one
Statistics for 2024 (AAA): 3 GS, 9.1 IP, 4 H (0 HR), 19 K, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA
Of course, Paul Skeens isn't in the major leagues yet.But as evidence that he probably should be, I submit [dramatically points upward] Them numbers.
Those 19 strikeouts came from 33 batters he faced, giving him a strikeout rate of 57.6. Is your sample size small? A minor league hitter? True, but the frequency of such punch-outs would make even 2014 Aroldis Chapman blush.
At 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, Skeens certainly resembles a power pitcher. And the rumors that he pitches like a power pitcher are no exaggeration. He was on the radar gun in spring training and is currently clocked at 160.1 mph in the minors. yes, sitting.
His whiff rate with just his four-seamer is 40.0 percent, but his biggest weapon is his slider. According to MLB.com, his whiff rate in the minors in 2023 was a whopping 63 percent.
All of this makes it clearer why the Pirates selected Skeens with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft. When he finally gets the call to debut on the show, there should be 2010 Stephen Strasburg-level hype.
Year: twenty two
Statistics for 2024: 4 GS, 23.0 IP, 16 H (4 HR), 32 K, 2 BB, 3.13 ERA
The Pirates are still waiting on Skeens, but they may already have the most troublesome pitcher in the majors on the team.
Rookie Jared Jones' ERA isn't otherworldly good, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio is definitely eye-catching. And between the sheer quality of his material and positional accuracy, he actually rates as the most complete pitcher in 2024.
His fastball was 97.2 mph, peaking at 160 mph, and his slider had an impressive whiff rate of 48.4. According to an article on MLB.com sarah langsHis 73 swings and whiffs are the most by a pitcher in his first four MLB starts since at least 2008.
The knock on Jones in 2024 is that he was, and remains, more of a control artist than a command artist. He has thrown strikes, but the home runs allowed mainly indicate that he has learned the hard way that some strikes are easier to hit than others.
Nevertheless, the fact that Jones made such a strong impression should lead to the frightening thought for hitters: “What if he adjusts and starts throwing better strikes?”
Year: twenty four
Statistics for 2024: 4 GS, 22.2 IP, 15 H (2 HR), 31 K, 4 BB, 3.57 ERA
Garrett Crochet is only two years removed from Tommy John surgery, but his four-game starts this year are the only four-game starts of his career.
But can you really blame me for overreacting?
The fastball is the headliner for Crochet. He maintains a speed of 96.5 mph and has reached a top speed of 160 mph, with more than half of his punchouts coming from the heater.
But the 6-foot-6, 245-pound fastball is also just one of three pitches with a whiff rate of over 30 percent to date. In fact, his most troublesome pitch is his slider, which has more horizontal break than sliders thrown by other left-handed pitchers. .
The big question, of course, is how many innings Crochet will get this year. But just looking at the content, he resembles the White Sox from the days when Carlos Rodon was the best on the South Side.
Year: twenty five
Statistics for 2024: 4 GS, 16.0 IP, 13 H (2 HR), 21 K, 4 BB, 4.50 ERA
This isn't the most impressive stat line, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto will kindly break things down for you.
- First start: 1.0 IP, 5 ER
- Last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3 ER
One of these is different from the others, which is encouraging for a Dodgers franchise that owns $325 million (technically speaking). $375 million) Invested in Yamamoto.
Other encouraging signs include the 5'10'', 176-pound right-hander's ball and command, both of which are rated above average in Stuff+ and Location+. His curveball and splitter have proven particularly effective, and together they can hold batters to .156. The former averages 16 strikeouts and has elite traits, including some downward movement at the next level.
Yamamoto's fastball is holding him back, but it's more a matter of location than quality. There's nothing wrong with him sitting at 95.4 mph. There's something wrong with him wandering into the thick parts of the zone so often.
However, this should turn out to be fixable. And when that happens, the man who had an ERA under 2.00 in Japan will finally see his glory.
Year: twenty four
Statistics for 2024: 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 8 H (0 HR), 26 K, 6 BB, 1.04 ERA
Reid Detmers pitched a no-hitter in just his 11th major league start in 2022, but it's only now that he's proving himself as the ace of the Angels' rotation.
It started on August 16, 2023, when the left-hander further flirted with the no-no, and now has a 2.01 ERA in his past 10 starts. And his first three games of the season have been nothing short of swings and misses.
His 40.6 strikeout rate is tops among all eligible pitchers. He also had the lowest overall contact rate and the lowest contact rate inside the strike zone at 65.8 percent.
Playing against the Boston Red Sox's volatile offense twice has helped, but things are changing. Figuratively speaking, he has reworked his fastball to be more of a weapon in the zone. But it's also true that his changeup is literally the weapon he lacks against right-handed hitters.
Detmers is also a welcome exception to MLB's current notable rule. In general, starting pitchers are working fewer and fewer innings, but their workload is only increasing.
Year: 26
Statistics for 2024: 4 GS, 23.1 IP, 21 H (1 HR), 29 K, 7 BB, 1.93 ERA
When the Royals acquired Cole Regans from the Texas Rangers last July, he was a two-time Tommy John survivor with little to no footprint in the majors.
To give you an idea of how things have gone since then, one evaluator told ESPN's Jeff Passan in March that Ragans is “left-handed.” [Jacob] deGrom. ”
That may sound hyperbolic, but we're talking about a player who started 16 games as a Royal and posted a 2.46 ERA and 30.7 strikeout rate. He also throws gas. So far in 2024, he has averaged 96.3 mph and topped out at 160 mph with his heater.
But focusing solely on his fastball would be doing him a disservice. He's a serious pitcher who throws five pitches, and his changeup and knuckle curveball have a whiff rate of over 50 percent for his young season. Overall, his Stuff+ score is up significantly even from last season.
Ragans, a stocky 6-foot-4, 190-pound starter, has thrown just under 100 pitches as a starter for the Royals. As long as his elbow continues, his qualities as an ace should progress from budding to blossoming.
Year: twenty four
Statistics for 2024: 4 GS, 24.0 IP, 20 H (3 HR), 27 K, 8 BB, 2.63 ERA
Like Skenes now, Grayson Rodriguez was also expected to be an ace candidate. He was ranked No. 1 among MLB.com pitching prospects in 2022 and No. 2 in 2023.
The hype didn't pay off at first, but it's starting to feel like it was forever ago. Since reemerging from the minors on July 17, 2023, Rodriguez has started 17 games and posted a 2.59 ERA.
The 6'5″, 230-pound player's Stuff+ score over this span is second only to teammate Corbin Burnes. And that shouldn't surprise anyone.
He reached 99 mph with his fastball and was good at making batters offer and whiff with both his changeup and curveball. Both have increased their whiff rates.
Rodriguez is also flipping the script on efficiency, with his walk rate, zone pitch rate and first-pitch strikes all improving. This helps explain why he averages six innings as a starter, which is basically a superhuman feat in this era.
Year: 27
Statistics for 2024: 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 9 H (2 HR), 20 K, 4 BB, 2.08 ERA
Tarik Skubal was on a good trajectory before undergoing flexor tendon surgery in 2022, but that trajectory never seemed to be in his favor.
that's all. He has started 18 games and has a 2.67 ERA since returning on July 4 of last year. And his usual ERA actually undervalues him, as he led other starting pitchers in expected ERA in both 2023 and 2024 so far.
Similar to Ragans, Skubal is working on major improvements to Stuff+ this season. He especially adds vertical movement to his fastball, which tops 100 mph, but that's not even his best pitch.
That honor goes to his changeup, which he hasn't hit as of 2024 with a batting average of .111 and a whiff rate of 47.4. His sinker and slider are also holding batters to a .111 batting average, so it's safe to say he has all four pitches.
The Tigers are also slightly off the lead in both Skubal's average innings and starts from last year. The plan seems to be to let him carry them as far as he can.
Statistics provided by Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Savant.
