Ukrainian drone operators can instantly map a safe route to their target using the system, developed for them by US software company Palantir. To demonstrate it to me, a Palantir engineer pressed a key. The simulated drone heads south, veers east in a wide semicircle to avoid one air defense zone, circles west in a semicircle around another air defense zone, zigzags a route through the jammer, and then It landed last. target.
This software-driven attack system is part of a surprising wave of innovation sparked by the Ukraine conflict. Fifteen months ago, I described the automated intelligence and targeting systems of “algorithmic warfare,” as the technologists here described it. It's currently version 2.0, or maybe 4.0. Competition for advantage continues to accelerate. Despite being a laggard, Russia has proven to be almost as adept at innovation as Ukraine.
“The nature of war has changed,” explains Giorgi Tsukhakaia, defense advisor at Ukraine's Ministry of Digital Transformation. “This is a technology war. If we don't know how to evade air defense and EW (electronic warfare), we will lose most or all of our drones. It's a cat-and-mouse game. We are learning, and our oppressors are I'm learning as well.”
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has pledged that Ukraine will build 1 million drones this year to compensate for declining supplies of arms and artillery from the West. Tukakaia said about 3,000 drones from both sides are in the air every day. The front line has become a digital firing range.
Ukrainian officials said electronic jamming devices were installed throughout the front lines, jamming GPS and other signals. But some drones will pass. A gruesome video that tracks desperate soldiers until they connect in a white light looks like a military version of a snuff film.
I was here with a team from Palantir that is advising the Ukrainian government on software tools for this ever-evolving battlefield. “The question is how quickly can we adapt,” explained a Palantir engineer who coordinates the company's operations here. Technology cycles evolve every few months, and each countermeasure produces countervailing responses.
This revolution in combat is powered by an extraordinary technology ecosystem. In the past 18 months, the number of Ukrainian drone companies has grown from seven to nearly 300, Tukakaia said. These local companies are backed by high-tech entrepreneurs from around the world who have banded together as a modern-day version of the idealistic “International Brigades” that fought alongside the Spanish Republicans against the fascists in the Spanish Civil War.
This tech cadre is one of the most fascinating and least understood aspects of war. In addition to some large companies like Palantir and Microsoft, Ukraine's technology backers include several prominent American billionaires, numerous American startups and companies from all over Europe to North America and Australia. Includes entrepreneurs. It's a strange amalgamation of Silicon Valley and trench warfare.
Ukrainian technology has evolved from simple quadcopters that can travel miles to large fixed-wing drones that can reach deep into Russia. The next step is to equip these drones with virtual mapping and artificial intelligence, allowing them to reach their targets even in the blizzard of Russian jamming. Six companies here have already perfected their AI technology, making it cheap enough to power thousands of smart drones.
However, as these autonomous systems evolve, the risk of escalation and spread around the world is enormous.
Human Rights Watch is one of many activist groups warning of what it calls “digital dehumanization” in warfare, and the Coalition for the Curtailment of Autonomous Weapons calls for “the boundaries between what is acceptable and what is unacceptable.” “We need new laws on the autonomy of weapons systems to draw the line.” It's the same one deployed by Ukraine, Russia, and dozens of other countries.
Using these new technologies, Ukraine is bringing the war back to Russia. The Ukrainians are launching drones in waves, hoping that some will reach their targets. For example, on March 12, Russia announced that Ukraine had launched 25 drone strikes, including one targeting Nizhny Novgorod, about 320 miles east of Moscow. On March 17, Ukraine sent 35 drones across the border, one of which caused a fire at a refinery in Krasnodar.
Attacks on Russian oil refineries were particularly aggressive. Ukrainian intelligence officials told Reuters on March 17 that they had attacked 12 Russian oil refineries. The news agency estimated this week that such attacks had shut down about 14% of Russia's refining capacity, including this week's attack on Russia's third-largest oil refinery in Tatarstan.
Zelenskiy told me in the presidential palace last week that Ukraine needs to fight back against Russia's attempts to disrupt its energy grid, even if the reaction from U.S. officials is “not positive.”
“Why can't you answer?” Zelenskiy said. “Their society has to learn to live without gasoline, diesel and electricity. … It's fair.” According to Kiev's calculations, Russia has deployed 4,630 Iranian-designed Shahed drones. More than one plane was launched against Ukraine.
Francisco Serra Martins, CEO of a startup drone maker called Terminal Autonomy, said he is currently producing the AQ 400 Scythe drone, which can fly nearly 500 miles. The company is also working on a version that can travel 1,200 miles. An exile with roots in Australia and Portugal, he is an example of Ukraine's international high-tech ecosystem.
Serra-Martins' products are described on the company's website. He started with a simple quadcopter called the “Scalpel,” which had a range of about 6 miles and a payload of 5 pounds. He uses an inexpensive wooden fixed-wing drone, meaning he has an AQ 100 bayonet that can carry 7 pounds of explosives up to about 30 miles, and a longer-range scythe that can carry a payload of nearly 100 pounds. I realized that I could build .
Terminal Autonomy currently produces 3,000 bayonets and 100 scythes each month, and Sera Martins said this could increase to more than 500. Amid competition from other startups, Serra-Martins says it's learning how to cut costs. He has renovated a furniture factory and uses cheap wood to build drones. He hopes to reduce the price of bayonet drones from about $2,000 to $1,000 later this year.
“That's the key to winning this war,” he says – low-cost, disposable but powerful drones. His company's slogan is “Strategic Warfare, Democratization.”
The defensive culture of startups is spreading. UkrJet manufactures a Czech-designed long-range drone called the Beaver. Founded in 2015, DEF-C now also manufactures long-range attack drones. A nonprofit called Escadrone makes inexpensive “first-person view” drones that cost less than $500. A Saskatchewan-based company sells software and AI systems in Ukraine that can guide drones.
“Our motto is 'Drones are fighting, not humans,'” Tukakaia said. He believes autonomous weapons will save Ukraine's most scarce resource: precious lives. He noted that the country's roughly 20,000 drone operators often work in protected underground bunkers, away from the front lines.
Congress' long delays in approving military aid to Kiev have resulted in an unexpected turnaround. Weapons-hungry countries like Ukraine are learning how to innovate and make their own.
